Chris Dobson, general manager, sales and trade marketing, MSN International spoke at The Media Guardian’s Changing Media Summit.
PVRs are a big change in media, he said in a speech which concentrated on the power of online advertising to a largely mainstream media audience and understandably pushed Microsoft’s position in the market place.
Tivo already over 10% penetration in home. Projection in the next 3-4 years is that it will reach 50%. Similar to VCR revolution. But most people with Tivos skip ads – a big problem for the US TV networks.
Online media won’t overtake TV, but collectively it will change the landscape, he thinks.
Multi-tasking in the home is growing, so search results peak for keywords after a TV ad is run. Consumers are using online as the interactive part of TV. Teenagers, are the best example of this. Their ability to take in messages form any angle is key.
Meanwhile print is in trouble, and in peaked in 2000, and thats gone on a slide since 2002. The print world is waking up to the fact they have content.
Murdoch was “still in denial” a year ago – his epiphany was in April 205 (Newspaper conference quote).
23rd Sept the New York Times slashed 500 jobs because of the Internet.
Google is a household name in UK and they’ve never spent any money on advertising.
MSN spaces is up to 25m members without any ads (global or UK?? he didn’t say. I suspect global).
Day-parting in TV advertising concentrates on evening peak times, but research shows that online means it’s easier for TV brands to reach people at work.
% Day after recall: TV fragmentation in US shows brand recall has been dropping since 1965.
Microsoft thinks ultimately there will be no difference between online and off line in the future and is investing in ‘digital convergence’.
Devices like TVs will be “repurposed”.
Broadband is driving the online advertising revolution. Correlation is tied at the hip with broadband.
Todays consumer is “intelligent, empowered, sceptical, connected, time pressed, has no loyalty, and is ahead of the curve.” They are ahead of the ‘conservative’ media industry.
He made a big play about Ajax and Microsoft Live.
Vista got delayed because Microsoft wasn’t happy with security.
There was $45bn worldwide online advertising by 2008.
Online for the consumer in control breaks down into information, which needs to be accessible from anywhere.
He says he migrated form Hotmail to Windows Live, which preloaded every contact I had on my PC (interesting that they talk up the security aspects then, since this smacks of the sort of this Plaxo does, and very annoyingly).
Microsoft.com is planning to take advertising in the next few months, as part of a rebranding of all the Microsoft products.
TV media planners or buyers are not talking the same language of media revolution however.
In 2000, online was a 1% medium. IN 2004 online became larger than radio. MSN thought by 2006 it would be third behind TV and newspaper, but it happened in 2005.
Note that “Get it” is coming back as a buzz-phrase – sprinkled liberally thoughout his speech.
Internet IS a mass medium, is almost too measurable, and is ‘always prime-time since the consumer is always in control.
The creative industry has been slow to to embrace online. and thinks online does not have impact – he thinks they are wrong.
The new rules of engagement are: search has relevancy built in as the keyword generates the advert, and the same is true of display. However, the notion of behaviour targeting is a “new movement” (Ed: actually this is not new, as Doubleclick tried to do this in the late 1990s but was stopped because of privacy laws in the US.)
He thinks there is big change happening in media, but not in the media industry.